Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
